28-Nov-2013
Andrew Manners, research analyst with the Perth-based think-tank Future Directions International, said Indonesia has threatened to reduce imports of Australian beef and any cut would be a blow to the struggling cattle industry.
But Australia might not necessarily be in as weak a position as some commentators suggested.
He said Indonesia had been looking to other markets to diversify beef imports for some time and that had become a strategic goal, especially following Australia's controversial suspension of live cattle exports in June 2011.
Brazil and India have been suggested as possible alternative markets but Mr Manners said neither could be viable in the near to medium term.
Both have experienced outbreaks of foot and mouth disease. Indonesian legislation bars imports from countries where the disease exists but amendments could allow import of cattle from disease-free areas of Brazil, as Malaysia now does.
Brazil is a long way away with high transport costs. Indian cattle are cheap but questions have been raised about the quality of their beef, he said.
"So, while the current spying scandal is likely to have further encouraged Jakarta to look to other markets, especially as it seeks to diversify beef imports, any drastic reductions in Australian cattle exports appear unlikely," he said.
Mr Manners said the latest stoush had still hardened Indonesia's resolve to look elsewhere to solve its beef shortage.
"In the short term Indonesia is unlikely to suspend live cattle exports completely," he said.
Source:- news.ninemsn.com.au
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